Current Research
Books in progress and active projects, organized by research domain. For published work, see Publications.
Political Violence
Aid in Conflict In Progress Book PDF TBA
A book-length treatment of how foreign aid interacts with violent armed conflict, synthesizing evidence from quantitative analysis, field experiments, and case studies across conflict-affected countries.
Rebel Sophistication in Aid Targeting: Insights from LRA Inner Circles In Progress
Uses rare access to former LRA combatants to study how rebel groups strategically target foreign aid resources.
Leaders, Factions, and Political Violence: Evidence from China's Cultural Revolution In Progress
Examines how leadership dynamics and factional competition drove patterns of political violence during the Cultural Revolution.
Experimental Evidence on Ethnic Identification and Deception In Progress
Multi-country experimental study (Uganda, South Africa, United States) on the ability to identify and deceive about ethnic identity.
Illicit Finance
Banking Bad: How Criminals Hack Global Finance In Progress Book PDF TBA
Building on the Banking Bad field experiment (AJPS 2025) and the sanctions study (Nature Human Behaviour 2026), a book-length account of how illicit actors exploit the global financial system and what can be done about it.
Bank of Guineastan: Research Synthesis In Progress
A synthesis paper framing the Global Shell Games program through an external validity lens, examining generalizability and transportability across the coordinated field experiments.
Using Field Experiments in International Business Research: Pricing Risk in Shell Corporations In Progress
International Development
Aid in Conflict In Progress Book PDF TBA
How foreign aid shapes and is shaped by violent armed conflict — spanning aid allocation, delivery, effectiveness, and unintended consequences across conflict-affected countries.
Do Aid Shocks Cause Conflict? Evidence from the Dismantlement of USAID In Progress
Examines the consequences of the USAID shutdown for development outcomes, aid delivery, and partner countries.
Short-Term Gains and Long-Term Losses in International Peacebuilding In Progress
Uses the PeaDa dataset to examine whether peacebuilding interventions in Africa produce durable effects or whether short-term gains dissipate over time.
Employing Ex-Combatants: A Resume Experiment in Colombia Data Collection
A resume audit experiment testing employer discrimination against former combatants in the Colombian labor market.
When Technology Meets Necessity: Digital vs. Traditional Humanitarian Aid in Pakistan In Progress
Ex-Combatant Demobilization and Support for Peace: A Quasi-Experiment in Colombia In Progress
Methods, Ethics & Scientific Standards
External Validity for Social Inquiry Under Review Book PDF TBA
A comprehensive framework for assessing and improving external validity in empirical social science, introducing the M-STOUT dimensions and a three-part structure of Model Utility, Scope Plausibility, and Specification Credibility.
Wrong Is Right: How Experts Can Learn Better from Error In Progress Book PDF TBA
An investigation of how experts across domains systematically fail to learn from their mistakes, and a framework for improving expert judgment through structured error analysis.
EVinference: R/Shiny Package for External Validity Assessment In Development
An R package and interactive Shiny application implementing the M-STOUT framework for systematic external validity assessment.
causalcakes: R Package for INUS Causal Visualization In Development
An R package for visualizing INUS (Insufficient but Necessary parts of Unnecessary but Sufficient conditions) causal structures.
Research Map
An interactive map of my full research portfolio — publications, teaching, and policy work — organized by substantive domain. Click any sub-topic cluster to expand. Hover for details. Curved arcs show cross-domain connections.