The Downstream Effects of Combatant Fragmentation on Civil War Resolution
Article: [.pdf here]
Rudloff, Peter J., and Michael G. Findley. 2016. "The Downstream Effects of Combatant Fragmentation on Civil War Resolution." Journal of Peace Research.
We consider whether the fragmentation of combatants during civil war has downstream effects on the durability of peace following civil wars. We contend specifically that the splintering of groups, a primary manifestation of fragmentation, produces potential spoiler groups that are neither incidental nor unimportant in the process of civil war resolution. Making connections to the spoiling and credible commitment literatures, we hypothesize that splintering hastens the recurrence of civil wars. Empirical analysis of fragmentation events since WWII offers support for the hypothesis that splintering decreases the duration of post-civil war peace. Taken together, the results suggest the need to pay closer attention to the dynamics of fragmentation.